Despite a record increase of 60 GW of solar PV capacity in 2023, Europe's solar capacity still increased slightly by around 20%. This year, however, will be another story.

Due to large-scale capacity installations in the region, solar photovoltaic (PV) Energy will surge by around 50 TWh in 2024, outpacing any other power generation source for the first time, with Germany leading the way, Rystad Energy predicts. Wind power is also expected to increase in 2024. However, this growth rate will not match the previous growth rate in 2023, when wind production increased by 50 TWh due to additional installed capacity and a windier year, especially in the last quarter.

Germany will shift from a major exporter of electricity to a net importer in 2023. With nuclear power plant shutdowns, low solar generation and lower electricity prices in other markets, Germany's conventional coal generation is lower than in previous years. As a result, Germany became increasingly dependent on imports from France and Denmark. This highlights the importance of energy diversification to ensure energy security and reduce dependence on imports.

Germany is now set to lead the European solar market in 2024, adding more capacity than any other country, continuing the trend to 2023. In addition, solar power generation is expected to improve significantly this year, marking a return to normal after a relatively poor performance in the previous year.

Germany saw a record-breaking growth of more than 14 GW in 2023, mainly driven by the installation of rooftop PV systems. Germany has installed about 6.5 GW of rooftop solar for residential use, powering about 1.3 million homes per year. The Commercial and Industrial (C&I) sector installed another 3.5GW, with more than 70% of the new capacity coming from rooftop installations, which played a crucial role in the growth of solar PV in Germany and Europe.

Rystad Energy expects renewables to continue to grow strongly in 2024, with solar leading the growth for the first time in terms of capacity and generation. Combined with the more stable production of nuclear power generation, we expect this to lead to a further decline in demand for fossil fuel power generation.

Since Europe's electricity demand is only growing slightly, we can conclude that Europe is fully harnessing renewable energy to achieve its electricity demand growth. This shows that the growth of renewable energy is sufficient to meet the growth in demand, which is why we have observed a decline in the use of fossil fuels. Editor/Xu Shengpeng